The intertidal zone, which lies between the high and low tide marks on the shores of the worlds' oceans, is an especially sensitive indicator of the effects of climate variability and climate change on marine species. Animals and plants that live in this habitat must contend with the ocean environment at high tide, and the terrestrial environment at low tide. As a result, their body temperatures may fluctuate as much as 10° or 20°C over the course of a single low tide.
We use biophysical computer models to predict body temperatures of ecological foundation species in the zone between the tides on the shores of the worlds' oceans. The species we study on rocky shores are barnacles and mussels. Barnacles and mussels control the distribution and abundance of other species in the habitat, because they are able to overgrow their competitors for primary space on the rock. Understanding the influence of climate on these ecosystem foundation species will allow us to predict the changes in biodiversity and biogeography of marine organisms in response to climate change and variability.
US East Coast Nowcast
US West Coast Nowcast
We make experimental nowcasts of intertidal
temperatures using 8km spatial scale hourly satellite land surface temperature
measurements from the sounder instrument aboard the geosynchronous weather satellites
(GOES)
operated by NOAA. We
have preliminary indications that the temperature trajectories of land
regions adjacent to the ocean have temperature trajectories similar to those
of our biomimetic data loggers.
For an explanation of how we make the nowcasts, click HERE.
We make short-term, 7-day forecasts every day
for locations on both coasts of North America, the coasts of Europe, New
Zealand, northern Japan, and South Africa. These forecasts are
derived from weather forecasts produced by NOAA (Global
Forecast System and North American Model). These forecasts are used to
produce daily maps of predicted temperatures of intertidal animals. The
short-term predictions are accurate to within 3-5°C,
based on
comparisons of forecasts to on-shore temperature measurements
using
biomimetic data loggers. We successfully predicted mass mortality of
sea urchins in New Zealand in 2007.
Forecasting Products
We make 8-month seasonal climate estimates for the same locations. These seasonal outlooks are derived from climate forecasts produced by NOAA (Climate Forecast System). The climate anomalies are intended to give a general idea of whether conditions expected over the next seasons will be warmer or cooler than the climatological average year. The climate estimates are not exact predictions of conditions on particular days or weeks, rather they are representative of conditions expected over the next months.
Funded by NOAA Ecological Forecasting, (NA04NOS4780264) NASA Earth Science Enterprise (NNG04GE43G), and NASA (NNX07AF20G).
Body Temperature Prediction derived from University of South Carolina intertidal version of NOAA NCEP NOAH Land Surface Model
Input data from NOAA
National Weather Service
Operational
Forecasts and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Ocean Wave Forecasts ,
obtained from
NOAA NCEP NOMADS data servers.
In accordance with USC Policy ACAF 7.04 the following information is included:
Department: Biological Sciences; Website
Maintainer: David Wethey: wethey at biol dot sc dot edu
Copyright 2008 by the Board of Trustees of the
University of South Carolina.
This is <URL:http://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/index.html> last modified 11 November 2009
