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Experimental Ecological Forecasting Product
National Estuarine Research Reserves

This model uses climate variables (i.e. air temperature, windspeed, sea surface temperature, solar radiation) from NOAA forecasted climate data to forecast mussel body temperatures at several heights in the intertidal. Forecasts are for today until 7 days from now, where day 7 includes data for only the first half of the day (i.e. until noon local time).

How we do the predictions: In order to estimate the timing of exposure at low tide within the NERR sites, we used data from the System-Wide Monitoring Program which is archived at the NERR Centralized Data Management Office. This program deploys water quality data loggers within each NERR site, which record water level. We used the water level data in conjuction with harmgen a program to derive harmonic constants for tidal prediction at each data logger location. We then used these harmonic constants with Xtide, to generate the 7-day tide predictions that underly the data accessible below. Each local forecast within a NERR site is based on tide predictions at the location of a water quality data logger, or at a station for which we have tidal harmonic constants.

This program is currently a work in progress and is being expanded and edited daily. It is furnished in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Do not use this program as a basis for any decisions that could result in harm to people, other organisms, or property. Do not rely on these predictions if you need guaranteed results. We rely on users like you to tell us when something is wrong. Please continue to do so.

       Kachemak Bay AK NERR Forecast    
       Wells ME NERR Forecast    
       Padilla Bay WA NERR Forecast    
        Great Bay NH NERR Forecast    
        South Slough OR NERR Forecast    
        Waquoit Bay MA NERR Forecast    
        Elkhorn Slough CA NERR Forecast    
        North Inlet SC NERR Forecast    

Funded by NOAA Ecological Forecasting, (NA04NOS4780264) NASA Earth Science Enterprise (NNG04GE43G), and NASA (NNX07AF20G,NNX11AP77).

Body Temperature Prediction derived from University of South Carolina intertidal version of   NOAA NCEP NOAH Land Surface Model

 Input data from NOAA National Weather Service Operational Forecasts and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction Ocean Wave Forecasts

In accordance with USC Policy ACAF 7.04 the following information is included:

Department: Biological Sciences; Website Maintainer: David Wethey:  wethey at biol dot sc dot edu
Copyright 2008 by the Board of Trustees of the University of South Carolina.
This is <URL:> last modified 6 September 2010